ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATIONS FOR THE CONTRAIL
PHENOMENON POSTED BY AN INTERESTED VISITOR
1. JAY REYNOLDS STATEMENT
2. EMAIL RECEIVED ANONYMOUSLY ON APRIL 3, 1999
(concluded to have been authored by Jay Reynolds)
PLEASE EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE AND DECIDE
FOR YOURSELF WHAT IS "ORDINARY"; C.E. Carnicom
To: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com,
firstname.lastname@example.org,Ian@Goddard.net (Ian Goddard)
Subject: Re: [contrailsightings] STRANGE HAZE
Date: Sat, 03 Apr 99 15:21:21 GMT
The series of photographs displayed at Cliff Carnicom's website:
depicts two intersecting contrails which spread to form wider clouds.
Clifford described the incident :
"This set of photos became available today, March 18. They show
dramatic and coordinated activity resulting in rapid cloud
formation; this entire series occurred approximately within one-half
hour on the morning of Feb 17th. There was a corresponding decrease
in temperature of approximately 25 degrees within this same period
over Santa Fe. This particular action appeared to be dedicated
explicity to the case of "X marks the spot", as described by
William Thomas in his recent interview on Art Bell on March 17-18."
"No clouds were visible in the sky at 0730 Sunday Feb 14.
Approximately two dozen contrails were observed over Santa Fe New
Mexico by approximately 0930. By 1300 on the same day the majority
of the sky was occluded with cirrus clouds of a nature similiar to
those shown forming in these photos. Nearly all, if not all, cloud
formation through the day was associated with prior contrail
activity. Almost all contrails were created from East to West.
Near sundown the vast majority of the clouds had dissipated. Upon
venturing outdoors, symptoms of watering eyes and an irritated sinus
have been experienced by the photographer from Feb 14 to Feb 16. A
pattern almost identical to that described above occurred on Feb 16
and Feb 17, 1999."
A review of archived weather images(2/day) is available for
satellite infrared: http://wxp.atms.purdue.edu/archive/sat_ir/9902/
Surface analysis: http://wxp.atms.purdue.edu/archive/sfc_map/
Upper air: http://wxp.eas.purdue.edu/archive/eta_init/9902/
An examination of the three day's archives shows an approaching low
pressure front from the northwest that had formed at least 1000
miles away from New Mexico. It is well known that contrail formation
is more common under these conditions of decreasing pressure and
temperature, and increasing moisture. There is nothing unusual in
this process. A much more dramatic example of contrail expansion
taken by a weather photographic specialist who is a 'storm chaser'
may be seen at: http://www.why.net/users/grhoden/oddities.htm
The hypothesis that parallel or intersecting contrails are unusual
is not supported by examination of the following graphic, which shows
the normal flight paths of air traffic over europe during a 1-1/2
hour period. http://dv.op.dlr.de/~pa64/literature/paris/node4.html
In that graphic, one can see hundreds of examples of
aircraft whose flight paths are running parallel, intersecting at
all conceivable angles, and which if weather conditions were suitable,
would have displayed some truly remarkable patterns.
Ian Goddard has done a similar photo analysis in Maryland, on a day
that contrail formation conditions were excellent, which shows
contrail formation coinciding with natural clouds. His analysis is
supported by some satellite photos taken at the same time, which
show extensive contrails. see: http://www.erols.com/igoddard/contrail.htm
Thus, patterns formed by aircraft as photographed by Carnicom
as result of parallel and intersecting flight paths are ordinary.
The weather conditions on the day of the Carnicom photos are
consistent with those known to form contrails, and were formed far
away from the photo site. These conditions are also ordinary and
Weather conditions cause contrails to form, or not, contrails
do not cause weather