PREDICTING THE OPERATIONS: SUNSPOTS AND HUMIDITY

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 PREDICTING THE OPERATIONS:
SUNSPOTS AND HUMIDITY
Sep 3 2002
Edited Oct 08 2002
Edited Nov 08 2002
Edited Oct 29 2003
(Recommend printing in landscape mode)
Clifford E Carnicom

SANTA FE REPORT : INDEX ON 112702 AT 0900 IS 44
Model correlation is statistically significant at 98% level as of 11/08/02

 


Additional Notes Oct 29 2003:

Please note that this article was authored on Sep 3 2002. The additional factor of vertical column aerosol density, most easily measured by star magnitude visibility, appears also to be significant in the prediction of the onset of the aerosol operations in a particular region.

 


Research over an extended period of time indicates that there is likely a strong relationship between the appearance of the aerosol operations in a given locale and time and the interaction of the following primary variables: sunspot activity, relative humidity, change in relative humidity and the relative cloud cover. The inclusion of the solar activity within this current examination may be a significant avenue of research that establishes a series of ties with earlier discussions related to ionospheric, electromagnetic and defense projects, applications of HAARP (High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program) and plasma physics that also appear on this site. Current studies on planetary physics and celestial considerations may demonstrate further relationships to the aerosol operations in the future.

This current work expands upon earlier presentations that have been made in the spring of 2001 related primarily to the relative humidity issue. These papers are available at The Aerosol Reports : United States; A Model Under Development and The Aerosol Report. This earlier work focused upon the consideration of relative humidity values across the nation in conjunction with observed aerosol operations. The result of that earlier work indicated a close link between increased relative humidity levels that were scaled according to local conditions and the likelihood of concurrent aerosol operations. Other researchers and considerable anecdotal information have also added to that body of correlations that now exist.

Since that time, increased attention has been given to the drought crisis that has emerged over the last three to four years, and further links from a scientific standpoint have been made to the aerosol operations with these events. Readers may wish to refer to the following paper Drought Inducement as well as an audio interview with Mr. Jeff Rense (June 4, 2002) on this same topic. Readers may also wish to become familiar with the the refuting arguments that I have made against any so-called “global warming mitigation” aerosol theories (e.g., Edward Teller) that have been proffered by certain well-publicized journalists and broadcasters. Analysis indicates that the introduced aerosols will aggravate the so-called “global warming” problem rather than lessen it. My concerns on the drought issue and the potential crisis that is likely to affect food production and water availability now and in the future have only been amplified since those presentations were made. It appears to me that it will be difficult, if not impossible, for the drought to subside and crops to improve as long as the aerosol operations continue unchecked without public outcry and action.

Local atmospheric electricity and magnetometer observations have also been added to the data set as of Sep 21 2002 and Oct 07 2002 respectively. These observations are a part of current research that expands upon that presented within this page, and they will be explained further at a later time.

This paper will again be divided into two sections. The latter half will outline the more technical aspects of the study, whereas the general findings are presented above.

 


Further Discussion:

An empirical model has now been developed of the following form:

I = c * [(log(SS+1) / 2.5)4 * (log(RHmean+1) / 2)2 * ((deltaRH + deltaRHmax) / (2 * deltaRHmax)) * cos(%CC * (pi / 200))] + 10

where

SS = daily sunspot number

RHmean = average of relative humidity in per cent at ground location(RHgnd) for the site of interest and the relative humidity in percent at commercial flight elevation(RHel) (250mb).

deltaRH = the change in average relative humidity in per cent from the previous day for the site of interest

deltaRHmax = the absolute value of the maximum change in average relative humidity in per cent from the previous day for the site of interest over the time interval that the model is to be used.

c = a constant, defined as 80 /I’max

where I’max = the maximum value of the product : (log(SS+1) / 2.5)4 * (log(RHmean + 1) / 2)2 * ((deltaRH + deltaRHmax) / (2 * deltaRHmax))* cos(%CC * (pi / 200))

reached during the time interval that the model is to be used.

CC = cloud cover index estimated according to the following table:

 

Condition

CC Index

Evaluation of CC Term

Clear

0

1

Mostly Clear

25

0.92

Partly Cloudy

50

0.71

Mostly Cloudy

75

0.38

Rain or Complete Cloud Cover

100

0.0

 

I represents an index value, scaled between 0 and 100 (for usual circumstances), that indicates the suitability of conditions for (and increased likelihood for) the aerosol operations to be conducted. Lower values indicate less favorable circumstances for the aerosol operations to occur, and higher values more favorable cirumstances for the aerosol operations to occur.The following is the specific model being used for the Santa Fe NM region at this time:

I = 175 * [(log(SS+1) / 2.5)4 * (log(RHmean + 1) / 2)2 * ((deltaRH + 35) / 70) * cos(%CC * (pi / 200))] + 10
This specific model as well as the original form will be modified or revised freely as circumstances require, and it is to be considered as preliminary. In particular, the deltaRHmax term is likely to increase as a longer time interval is used for the model. .

To illustrate the use of this model, a table of data will be presented for the Santa Fe area, along with the results of the model as compared to observation reports for the same time period.

 

Date

Time

SS

RHgnd

RHel

RHmean

dRH

Natural
Cloud Cover
Estimate

CC Index

I’

I

Comments/Observations

Local
Atmospheric Electricity Measurements
Time – Obs.
uA

Local
Magnetometer
Measurements
Horiz. Component
Time – Obs
delUnit = 0.486odeflection

delM

0727

1000

323

58

NA

58

11

Clear

0

0.52

101

Blitz. Extraordinary activity reported in TX, NM, CO.. Normal range of model exceeded.

0821

2200

209

26

31

28

NA

Clear

0

NA

NA

NA.. Start of modeling; eliminate from scoring of model.

0822

0900

238

16

21

18

-10

Clear

0

0.12

31

Light ops

0823

0900

205

38

40

39

21

Clear

0

0.37

75

Heavy ops

0824

0800

207

43

57

50

11

Clear

0

0.36

72

Heavy ops

0825

0830

199

23

15

19

-31

Clear

0

0.02

14

No ops directly observed; unusual transformations of aerosol “clouds” in PM; observations insufficient and indeterminate; eliminate from scoring of model.

0826

0900

136

16

57

36

17

Clear

0

0.24

52

No ops, Jemez Mtn. fire in PM

0827

0900

105

14

17

15

-21

Clear

0

0.03

15

No ops

0827

2400

133

46

NA

46

31

Mostly
Clear

25

0.29

61

Moist air arrival in PM; heavy ops in PM

0828

0900

133

63

36

49

3

Partly
Cloudy

50

0.14

34

Light to med ops

0829

0900

87

93

40

66

17

Partly
Cloudy

50

0.16

38

Much moisture in sky; light to med ops

0830

0900

146

72

19

45

-21

Clear

0

0.08

24

Light ops to none

0831

0900

150

43

45

44

-1

Clear

0

0.19

43

None in Santa Fe(SF) region w/ clear skies; Heavy local ops on east horizon approx 200 miles easterly; aerosol cloud bank on east horizon

0901

0900

153

51

32

41

-3

Partly Cloudy

50

0.12

31

Light to Med ops east of SF in AM; none in PM. Increasing cumulus clouds. Humidity decreases in PM.

0902

0900

187

52

28

40

-1

Mostly
Cloudy

75

0.08

24

Mostly cloudy skies; No ops visible within clear patches.

0903

0900

227

68

32

50

10

Mostly
Cloudy

75

0.14

34

Mostly Cloudy skies. No ops visible within clear patches.

0904

1000

266

49

17

33

-17

Clear

0

0.14

34

No ops

0905

1000

215

34

21

27

-6

Clear

0

0.16

38

No ops

0906

0800

225

46

59

52

25

Clear

0

0.51

99

Very heavy ops in western sky and ABQ; progressive activities and dispersals over Santa Fe; numerous reports of heavy ops at several locations in U.S.A.

0907

0900

189

44

33

38

-14

Partly
Cloudy

50

0.09

26

Light to no ops. Increasing cloudiness
throughout day. Another storm system
destroyed.

0908

0900

180

54

29

42

4

Mostly
Clear

25

0.23

50

No ops

0909

0830

221

75

51

63

21

Mostly
Cloudy

75

0.19

44

Light to no ops visible w/in clear patches of sky. Increasing cloudiness through day.

0910

0900

194

88

33

60

-3

Rain

100

0.00

10

Rain. No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring.

0911

0900

226

98

36

67

7

Rain

100

0.00

10

Rain. No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring.

0912

0800

213

90

38

64

-3

Mostly
Cloudy

75

0.11

29

No ops within clear patches.

0913

0830

258

89

24

45

-19

Clear

0

0.27

57

No ops

0914

0900

246

72

23

47

2

Partly
Cloudy

50

0.22

49

No ops. Reports of heavy activities in eastern US.

0915

0900

256

71

22

46

-1

Clear

0

0.30

62

No ops

0916

0800

168

86

13

50

4

Clear

0

0.25

54

No ops

0917

0900

190

67

27

47

-3

Clear

0

0.22

48

No ops

0918

0900

228

53

38

46

-1

Partly
Cloudy

25

0.25

53

No ops. Increasing cloudiness throughout day and heavy rain in PM.

0919

0900

225

76

2

39

-7

Partly Cloudy

50

0.14

35

Cloudy in AM. Partly cloudy later AM and PM. Light ops in northern horizon at sunset.

0920

0800

206

74

18

46

7

Clear

0

0.31

64

No ops.

0921

0900

237

66

14

40

-6

Clear

0

0.22

49

No ops

2300 .480

0922

0800

217

59

16

37

-3

Mostly
Clear

25

0.21

46

No ops. Measurements 1500-1800 taken at Jack’s Creek, Elev 9500′

0030 .476
0900 .477
0915 .475
1500 .478
1615 .499
1630 .501
1800 .491

2100 .488

0923

0800

218

66

18

42

5

Clear

0

0.29

61

No ops

0030 .473
0900 .479
1300 .477
2315 .471

0924

0900

209

57

31

44

2

Mostly
Clear

25

0.25

53

No ops. Cumulus clouds diffused by aerosols.

1000 .479
1300 .476

0925

0800

240

59

25

42

-2

Mostly
Clear

25

0.24

52

No ops. Cumulus clouds diffused by aerosols.

0015 .474
0100 .472
0130 .474
0900 .475
1545 .502
1815 .477

0926

0800

230

49

31

40

-2

Partly
Cloudy

50

0.17

40

No ops. Repeated diffusion of clouds by aerosol base.

0900 .474

0927

0800

157

56

25

40

0

Clear

0

0.20

44

No ops.

0900 .475
1500 .467
1530 .465
1530 .466
2000 .475

0928

0800

185

93

19

56

16

Rain

100

0.00

10

Rain. No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring.

0030 .476
0900 .476

0929

0900

140

71

19

45

-11

Mostly
Cloudy

75

0.05

19

No ops.

0830 .481
0830 .493
0915 .473
0930 .475

0930

0900

146

62

35

49

4

Clear

0

0.22

49

No ops. Note solar storm index @100+.

0930 .486
0930 .494
1115 .488
1115 .477
1115 .473
1240 .495
1645 .480
1645 .483

1001

0800

94

77

19

48

-1

Partly
Cloudy

50

0.10

27

No ops. Note solar storm index @100+.

0015 .480
0015 .474
1300 .478
1300 .482
1300 .483
1300 .493
1800 .509
1800 .504

1002

0800

105

66

22

44

-4

Clear

0

0.13

33

No ops. Solar wind storm ceases.

1015 .494
1015 .485
1015 .477

1003

0800

99

65

20

43

-1

Clear

0

0.13

33

No ops. Solar storm increases again.

0915 .475
0915 .473
0915 .483
1215 .493
1215 .509
1445 .466
1445 .466
1445 .460

1004

0830

81

46

16

31

-12

Clear

0

0.06

21

No ops.

1000 .475
1000 .476

1005

0900

98

32

30

31

0

Clear

0

0.11

30

No local observations available. Exclude from scoring. Exteme sinus allergic response in AM after overnight outdoor exposure in San Luus Valley CO. Visibility degradation from aerosols apparent.

1030 .452

1006

0900

155

35

56

45

15

Clear

0

0.30

62

No local observations available. Exclude from scoring. Reports of heavy ops in Phoenix and Tuscon and SW NM on CTTUSA after hiatus. Msmts. taken at Salida CO, Elev 7000′.

1000 .460
1000 .460
1215 .499
1215 .483
1215 .477

1007

0900

126

63

18

40

-5

Partly Cloudy

50

0.10

28

No ops. Increasing cloudiness. Heavy aerosol cloud bank to S. and SW.
Solar storm index @84.

0930 .460
0930 .458
0930 .459
1245 .463
1245 .458
1500 .459
1500 .453
1500 .457
1915 .466
1915 .468
1915 .460
2000 .483

2400 398

1008

0830

143

63

61

62

22

Mostly Clear

25

0.34

69

Light to med ops. Heavy aerosol cloud bank over ABQ; in process of extending to Santa Fe. Wind increases. Dissipation of aerosol bank by 1415. Observations @1530 in Espanola NM under clear skies.

1000 .475
1000 .473
1000 .472
1100 .475
1100 .475
1100 .479
1315 .473
1315 .473
1315 .473

1400 .475
1400 .473
1400 .473

1530 .483
1530 .506

1945 .505
1945 .481

0100 405.00
0215 405.25
0830 405.25
0900 406.00
1100 405.50
1200 404.00
1300 403.00
1900 402.00
7.0
0.2
0.0
1.5
-0.2
-1.5
-1.0
-0.2
RMS=2.6
n=8

1009

0800

128

64

23

44

-18

Clear

0

0.08

24

No ops Local hospital employee report of increased respiratory and sinus illness amongst employees.

0830 .474
0830 .476
0830 .475
1330 .472
1330 .478
1330 .474

0800 401.50
0815 402.00
0845 402.25
0930 402.25
2100 397.50

0.0
2.0
0.3
0.0
-.4
RMS=0.9
n=5

1010

0900

226

33

26

29

-15

Clear

0

0.13

32

No ops. Increased reports of heavy ops across other portions of country at CTTUSA. Rapid respiratory illness onset approx 1600.

0930 .473
0930 .475
1015 .479
1015 .489
1015 .474
1350 .495
1350 .502
1350 .469
2115 .474
2115 .472
2115 .478

0900 401.75
2030 401.75

0.4
0.0
RMS=0.3
n=2

1011

0900

244

42

38

40

11

Clear

0

0.36

73

Light ops overhead in AM. Extensive aerosol bank to west increasing throughout day. Winds increase from west. Light to med ops toward PM as haze extends.
Significant respiratory illness continues.

0930 .475
1530 .472
1530 .478
1530 .478
1715 .481
1715 .479
1715 .474

0900 402.00
1500 398.75
1700 398.50

0.0
-0.5
-0.1
RMS=0.3
n=3

1012

0900

178

38

56

47

7

Mostly Clear

25

0.26

55

Med to heavy operations in conjunction with aerosol based cloud bank that continues from yesterday. Significant respiratory illness continues. Note www.wundergound.com reports conditions as being continuously clear in spite of rapidly increasing “cloud” bank. Note rapid change in local magnetic field not occurring with HAARP magnetometer readings.

1245 .473
1245 .472
1245 .474
1845 .478
1845 .480
1845 .476

1115 400.00
1230 402.00
1430 400.50
1600 397.00
1845 399.00
2230 400.50

1.6
0.8
-1.4
-2.0
0.4
RMS=1.4
n=5

1013

0900

171

37

30

33

-14

Cloudy

100

0.00

10

Full cloud cover. No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring.
Note changes in local magnetic field not occurring with HAARP magnetometer readings. Sky clears in afternoon. Magnetic field variation decreases as sky clears.

0930 .475
0930 .472
0930 .472
1630 .476

0800 400.00
0830 399.00
0845 401.25
0945 401.25
1145 398.00
1415 399.50
1500 398.50
1630 398.75
2300 400.75

0.0
-2.0
9.0
0.0
-1.6
0.6
-1.3
0.2
0.3
RMS=3.2
n=9

1014

0800

167

65

28

46

13

Mostly Clear
(aerosol based)

25

0.28

59

Medium to heavy ops. High level aerosol bank developing. Increasing winds again. HAARP magnetometer shows high activity for a few hours. Limited mag observations. Atmosphere trashed.

0900 .473
0900 .473
0900 .472
1745 .474
1745 .476
1745 .475
1745 .476

0830 402.30
0900 402.80
2245 402.00

0.2
1.0
-0.8
RMS=0.7
n=3

1015

0830

175

42

38

40

-6

Mostly ‘Cloudy’
(aerosol based)

25

0.06

38

Light to med ops; a continuing operation. Extensive high level ‘cloud’ cover is primarily aerosol based. Relatively low level mag activity at HAARP.Extensive aerosol bank developed over ABQ carrying through sunset. Emergency broadcast system becomes active (unnannounced; no intro) on AM bands today. Consider heightened alert status. Numerous reports of heavy ops in varied locations across country. Note increased current with bank over ABQ vs Santa Fe.; Santa Fe cleared approx 2 hrs. prior to sunset. Notice sudden increase in current (i) after clearing of sky. Same event in Espanola 100802. HAARP mag remains quiet.

0930 .477
0930 .473
0930 .473
2150 .486
2150 .495
2150 .491

0015 402.30
0830 402.50
0900 403.00
1030 404.00
1115 404.00
1815 403.75
2130 405.00
2300 408.00
2355 409.80

0.2
0.0
1.0
0.6
0.0
-0.0
0.4
2.0
2.0
RMS=1.0
n=9

1016

0845

165

55

48

51

11

Partly ‘Cloudy’
(aerosol based)

25

0.28

59

‘Cloud’ base is completely artificial. A major operation continues-heavy ops. Ops continued throughout previous night visible by moonlight. Low level persistent cough returns; symptoms again consistent with mycoplasma. Reports at CTTUSA of heavy ops across US and Canada continue. CME on sun Oct 14; magnetic filament collapse on Sun Oct 15. Stable I with aerosol bank.

0900 .473
0900 .473
0900 .473
1750 .473
1750 .473
1750 .473

0900 409.60
1645 408.00
1800 408.00
2230 407.60

0.0
-0.2
0.0
-.1
RMS=0.1

1017

0830

182

51

25

38

-13

Partly Cloudy(significant aerosol influence remains)

50

0.10

27

No ops in AM hours. Effects from major operation over past 5-6 days easily visible. ‘Cloud’ base is a mix of cumulus, stratus and aerosol base.
Stable I readings remain. Increasing clouds through day. Ops visible near sundown with increased clouds; another storm system degraded or destroyed. ELF meter during day indicates highly stable mag field; measurements concur.

0830 .475
0830 .476
0830 .475

0800 407.25
1930 407.75

0.0
0.0
RMS=0.0
n=2

1018

0900

215

80

26

53

15

Cloudy(significant aerosol influence)

100

0.00

10

No vertical visibility in AM..Exclude from scoring. I and B stable. Mix of cumulus and aerosol base in PM; mostly cloudy.

0900 .473
0900 .473
0900 .475
2145 .476
2145 .471
2145 .474
2145 .472

0900 407.20
1030 406.75
1100 406.50
1145 406.75
1300 407.50
1445 407.25
1645 407.00
2215 407.00

0.0
-0.3
-0.5
0.3
0.6
-0.1
0.1
0.0
RMS=0.3
n=8

1019

0900

200

73

33

53

0

Mostly Clear

25

0.25

54

No ops. Sky clears.

LF (Low Frequency) Data Monitoring Begins

0900 410.00
2000 406.90
2230 406.75

0.3
-0.3
0.0
RMS=0.2
n=3

1020

0830

156

74

33

53

0

Clear

0

0.23

50

No ops. HAARP mag. quiet also.

0830 406.50
2000 406.50

0.0
0.0
RMS=0.0
n=2

1021

0900

179

54

29

42

-11

Mostly Clear.

25

0.14

34

No ops. Significant aerosol influence upon ‘clouds’. HAARP mag remains quiet. Significant sunspot group has developed, #162. Mag spike at sunset – LF meter correlates.

0015 407.50
0200 407.50
0900 408.00
1115 407.60
1400 407.50
1800 407.00
1845 406.25
2000 406.25
2400 406.00

0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.2
-0.0
-0.1
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
RMS=0.4
n=9

1022

0815

NA
(179 used)

62

32

47

5

Mostly Clear

25

0.25

53

No ops. Med.

0800 406.25
1945 406.00

0.0
0.0
RMS=0.0
n=2

1023

0815

132

83

26

54

7

Partly Cloudy

50

0.17

40

No ops. Thunder in AM, no rain.
Note solar storm index @100+.
Rain in PM; dynamic extended lightning storm in ABQ. LF meter shows reversal with arrival of rain.

0815 405.90
1000 408.20
1300 408.40
1930 405.30

0.0
1.3
0.1
-0.5
RMS=0.7
n=4

1024

0900

149

96

26

61

7

Partly Cloudy

50

0.19

44

No ops. Extreme magnetic disturbance at HAARP mag in PM.
Radiosonde data not available
Exclude from scoring.

0200 406.20
0830 406.10
2315 408.30

0.l
0.0
0.1
RMS=0.1
n=3

1025

0930

149

89

26

57

-4

Mostly Clear

25

0.18

42

No ops overhead in AM.. Radiosonde data not available. Extremely heavy ops begin at midday and carry through afternoon. Heavy aerosol bank visible over ABQ in late AM, extends with heavy aerosol ops over Santa Fe throughout day. LF meter depicts significant aberration. Exclude from scoring.

0945 408.10
1415 406.00
2115 405.80

0.0
0.4
0.0
RMS=0.2
n=3

1026

0915

151

71

26

48

-9

Cloudy

100

0.00

10

Radiosonde data not available.
Exclude from scoring.
Frequent heavy rains.

0930 408.10
1215 408.75
1900 407.50
2000 407.75
2300 407.25

0.2
0.2
-0.2
0.3
0.2
RMS=0.2
n=5

1027

0930

143

89

32

61

13

Partly Cloudy

50

0.22

48

No ops.
Note solar storm index @58.
Solar storm index at 1830 is 100+.
Significant magnetic aberration appears on LF meter in afternoon.

0930 408.40
1830 408.75

0.1
0.0
RMS=0.1
n=3

1028

0830

120

96

23

60

-1

Partly Cloudy

50

0.15

36

No ops.

0830 408.30

0.0
RMS=0.0
n=1

1029

0815

143

79

30

54

-6

Mostly Cloudy

75

0.07

22

No ops visible w/in clear patches.
LF patterns differ from previous week.

0815 408.10
2330 407.70

0.0
0.0
RMS=0.0
n=2

1030

0830

168

72

29

51

-3

Mostly Clear

25

0.19

44

No ops.

0830 407.80

0.0
RMS=0
n=1

1031

0845

182

79

25

52

1

Clear after fog dissipates in AM.

0

0.26

55

No ops directly overhead in AM. Fog in AM, clearing in AM. Major and extensive aerosol bank develops to W-NW on horizon by mid-morning. Aerosol bank extends toward easterly toward Santa Fe by md-afternoon. LF meter shows repeat concave increase in frequency structure in correspondence with encroaching aerosol bank. Sinus allergic response begins.

0030 407.20
0845 407.00
1330 407.40
1730 407.00

0.0
0.0
0.1
-0.1
RMS=0.1
n=4

1101

0830

134

79

36

57

5

Mostly Cloudy

75

0.09

26

No ops visible within clear section on northern horizon.

0845 407.6
2200 406.0

0.0
0.1
RMS=0.1
n=2

1102

1000

169

81

10

45

-12

Cloudy

100

0.00

10

No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring.

0915 405.2
2100 402.3
2145 403.0

-0.1
-0.2
0.9
RMS=0.5
n=3

1103

0845

177

47

45

46

1

Mostly Clear

25

0.22

48

No ops in AM overhead.. Heavy aerosol based cloud bank in southern sky. High level aerosol based ‘clouds’ with wave formations overhead. Magnetic field shows increased activity. Solar storm index @78.Strong increase in LF frequency recorded yestereday PM and night. Artificial aerosol bank extends in coverage throughout day; appearance completely artificial. Report of demarcation line to north at Hooper CO. Aerosol ops begin and visible overhead immediately prior to sunset. Note increased magnetometer activity. LF meter shows much activity and requires repeated recalibration.
ELF frequencies detected with developed resonant circuit. Readings found at 2.5Hz (+/- 0.5Hz), 16Hz (+/- 1.0Hz), 21Hz (+/- 1.0Hz) and 31Hz (+/- 1.0Hz). Also 60Hz and 120Hz (2nd harmonic) power grid detected.

0130 405.8
0845 405.3
1045 406.2
1815 404.8
2030 403.0

0.8
-0.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.8
RMS=0.5
n=5

1104

0845

217

100

2

51

5

Snow

100

0.00

10

No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring. LF meter shows significant rise in frequency throughout previous night. Note magnetometer activity.

0100 402.1
0845 402.2
1000 405.5
2015 406.0

-0.2
0.0
2.6
0.0
RMS=1.3
n=3

1105

0830

166

70

22

46

-5

Clear

0

0.19

43

No ops. LF meter active. HAARP magnetometer active.

0830 405.3
1115 404.8

-0.1
-0.2
RMS=0.2
n=2
1106

0800

175

66

21

43

-3

Clear

0

0.20

46

No ops.

0800 404.1

0.0
RMS=0
n=1
1107

0930

234

77

43

60

17

Clear

0

0.48

94

Extremely heavy ops on northern horizon and in ABQ in AM hours. Direction of ops is E-W. Aerosol bank extends over Santa Fe region through mid-day. Heavy aerosol ops conducted in SF post 1200.
Notice increased magnetomer activity.

0030 407.8
0915 404.0
1015 404.3
1515 407.2
1815 407.8

0.2
-0.4
0.3
0.6
0.2
RMS=0.4
n=5

1108

0800

259

43

36

40

-20

Mostly Cloudy

75

0.04

18

No ops visible within clear patches.
Storm front negatively impacted w/ aerosol contamination of atmosphere.

0800 407.5
1345 408.3

0.0
0.2
RMS=0.1
n=2

1109

0845

252

81

3

42

2

Rain

100

10

No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring. Note magnetometer activity. High winds. Heavy rains at night HAARP has no unusual activity; exceptionally flat magnetometer. Conflict between local mag and HAARP again.

0845 411.2
1300 408.8
1715 406.1
2130 402.2
2200 401.0
2400 400.2

0.2
-0.6
-0.6
0.9
2.4
0.4
RMS=1.1
n=6

1110

Rain

100

0.00

10

No vertical visibility. Exclude from scoring.

1111

0830

219

53

33

43

1

Mostly Cloudy

75

0.10

28

No ops visible within clear patches.

0830 408.1

0.2

1112

0900

197

67

25

46

3

Clear

0

0.27

57

No ops in AM. Extremely heavy ops begin at midday in narrow 20 degree band essentially directly overhead. Appears as a target zone. Aerosol bank diffuses overhead in localized region. Extremely heavy ops begin in afternoon and carry through day. Ops visible at night. Emergency broadcast comes on unannounced. Higher threat level implied through this and news accounts.Minimum no. of mag. readings.

0900 407.2
1200 406.8

0.0

1113

0830

155

43

55

49

3

Clear w/exception to heavy ops

0

0.23

50

Extremely heavy ops. Major activity. Minimum no.of mag. readings.

0900 404.0

0.0

1114

0845

182

67

43

55

6

Mostly Cloudy

75

0.11

30

No ops visible. Cloud development significantly degraded by aerosol base. Note low mag reading.

0845 397.6

-0.3

1115

0900

185

89

30

60

5

Clear

0

0.31

64

Direct observations not available. Exclude from scoring.

1116

0900

185

72

25

49

-11

Clear

0

0.16

39

Direct observations not available. Exclude from scoring. Heavy ops in Durango CO.

1117

0900

162

46

42

44

-5

Clear

0

0.18

42

Direct observations not available. Exclude from scoring.ot available. Exclude from scoring. Heavy ops in Durango CO. Heavy ops in ABQ reported.

1118

0900

139

36

25

31

-13

Clear

0

0.10

27

No ops. Increased winds.

0930 396.3

1119

0900

119

43

41

42

11

Clear

0

0.21

47

No ops. Aerosol bank visible on W. horizon in afternoon.

0900 397.5

1120

0930

105

46

32

39

-3

Clear

0

0.13

32

No ops. Solar storm index @100+

0930 403.9

1121

0900

108

51

19

35

-4

Clear

0

0.12

31

No ops.

0900 408.7

1122

0900

143

65

19

42

7

Clear

0

0.22

42

No ops during day. Ops begin at night, visible by moonlight.

1123

0800

124

57

33

45

3

Minimal natural cloud cover; aerosol banks increasing.

0

0.18

42

Heavy ops apparently conducted at night; heavy aerosol bank over ABQ and extending towards Santa Fe. Med op activity overhead. Note earlier active solar storm index on 1120.

0800 403.2

1124

0915

126

44

17

30

-14

Clear

0

0.08

24

No ops.

0915 407.3

1125

0900

120

75

40

58

28

Partly Cloudy; heavy aerosol compent to ‘cloud’ base

50

0.31

52

Heavy ops in mid-day. Numerous reports of heavy activities across country..

1126

0915

106

45

27

36

-22

Mostly Clear; aerosol bank on southern horizon.

25

0.05

18

No ops

0915 403.2

11274

0900

100

63

32

47

11

Clear

0

0.19

44

No ops

0900 403.2


Readers may see that the model over the interval considered is showing a fairly high level of accuracy in predicting when conditions for aerosol operations are more favorable for this region. It is to be understood that the model is NOT expected to predict the actual occurrence of operations; only the existence of favorable conditions for the operations.
A failure of the model occurs when a low index value is computed but observations of heavy aerosol operations occur overhead. Failure can not be positively established when a high index is computed and heavy aerosol operations DO NOT occur, as suitable CONDITIONS only are considered within the model. Specific additional environmental and physical factors that produce failure are to be identified at that time; other citizens may wish to contribute to that goal. Additional evaluations over time will demonstrate the success or failure of this model.

It is of interest to discuss how the consideration of solar activity has come to be incorporated into this model in addition to the previous consideration of relative humidity alone. This brings to attention the events of and surrounding July 27 of this year. Observations of aerosol activity prior to this date, especially during the months of June and the first half of July 2002 appeared to be declining based upon commonly used reporting sources. During the last week of July, this appeared to change as reports suddenly and dramatically increased. On July 27 2002 the following public report was made by Lorie Kramer, a sincere and dedicated activist of Chemtrail Tracking USA:

“BLITZ in SW Houston, Sat Jul 27 2002

This is the absolute WORST spraying I have seen in quite a few months. They are laying it down and have been since early morning. The smear is thicker than I’ve seen for 2 years. INCREDIBLE. I bought a disposable camera but won’t be able to get the film developed until tomorrow or Monday, when I do I’ll post it. CREEPS!”

The same intensity of aerosol operations was further confirmed by simultaneous observations in New Mexico and Colorado from equally reliable sources. One must ask, what was unique in an environmental, meteorological or geophysical sense on or around the date of July 27, 2002 that might affect the sudden increase in intensive operations? One factor which deserves close attention is the daily sunspot number, as it ranked upon this date as one of the highest values seen within recent years. The monthly sunspot number in June had declined to 84.5, one of the lowest values of the three previous years. The daily sunspot number on July 27 reached a peak of 323, and remained at an extremely high level for several days before and after this date. This event, combined with humidity studies during the last year and a half, as well as consideration of the ionization properties of barium (see previous research) is unique enough to warrant further evaluation in the model that has been developed above. Observations over time will determine if the hypothesis of solar energy combined with humidity aspects is justified or not; studies to confirm or refute the model are welcomed by other citizens.


Scoring the model:

There are several different methods by which the model above may be evaluated; a favorable result appears to be produced by a variety of tests at this point. The means that will be chosen to evaluate is Spearman’s correlation, a non-parametric statistical test which does not require any assumptions about the distribution of the data. Spearman’s correlation is dependent upon a ranking system, which is more reasonable in this case to accomodate any subjective qualities of the observational data that is to be used. The following ranking system will be used for the observational data:

0-50 None to light ops
50-80 Light to medium ops
80-100 Medium to heavy ops

The midpoint of these intervals will be used to establish a ranking system. The details of this statistical test will not be explained here; readers may wish to refer to “Practical Statistics” by Russell Langley, Dover, 1970 for further information. The reader is not expected to follow the mechanics of this test procedure without the use of this reference or its equivalent.

The test will be completed as follows for the period from 082102 to 110802 and on 072702, with excluded values as noted above. As the tabulation of all data is lengthy, the only the final tabulations and z score computation will be shown:

n = 68
Sum of D2 = 28264
Ties:

t50 = 1

10412 ( 1) = 10412.5

t9 = 2

60 (2) = 120

t2 = 11

0.5 (11) = 5.5

t3 = 6

2 (6) = 12

t4 = 1

5 ( 1) = 5

 

Sum = 10555

 

D2 + T = 38819
(1 / 6) * (n3 – n) = 54, 740
38819 / 54740 = .709
1 – .709 = .291
Z = 681/2 * (.291) = 2.40
Z is significant at 98% level.

From the reference above (page 204), the z score for this data set is computed at 2.40. The results of this test are therefore significant at the 98%+ level. This indicates a likely significant correlation between the model data and the observational data. Correlation does not infer causality. The results of this test demonstrate that the model proposed is worthy of continued use.

 

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PREDICTING THE OPERATIONS: SUNSPOTS AND HUMIDITY by Carnicom Institute is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.