A preliminary model is presented here to be used to predict whether contrails will form or not under reported meteorological conditions at flight altitude. Contrail prediction models are difficult to attain, so this model is presented for investigative purposes only. This model can and will be evaluated with actual observations in an effort to test it for reliability.
This paper outlines a model developed that estimates the distance behind the engines that a contrail (condensed trail of water vapor) is expected to form. The model results support exceptionally well a statement issued by the United States Air Force (USAF) that ‘contrails become visible roughly about a wingspan distance behind the aircraft’. An abundance of photographic and video evidence shows the repeated formation of aerosol trails in much closer proximity to the engines than that established by the USAF. The evaluation presented in this work adds to the multitude of studies that conclusively demonstrate that the emissions from aerosol operations are not composed primarily of water vapor. A very detailed model calculation is presented supporting these claims.
The question of whether of not visible light is sufficient to ionize the presumed metallic particulate material recently evidenced by photographs and video of January 3, 2001 is now answerable based on definitions and calculations discussed in this Carnicom paper. The ‘work force’ of metal is explained, which is crucial to the determination of the level of energy required for photo-ionization to take place. The results of the study done in this paper indicates that the energy available within visible light is sufficient to produce photo-ionization of barium particulate matter, and that midrange ultraviolet light is sufficient to produce photo-ionization of particulates of magnesium.
This paper discusses a preliminary model developed in order to estimate the length of time required for ‘normal’ contrails to dissipate. The model developed agrees extremely well with historical behavior and observation of contrails. Conclusions that result from the study of this model include the expected rate of water vapor based contrails, and that the rates of dissipation for normal contrails are based on the size of ice crystal particulates and amount of solar radiation. A further conclusion drawn is that if an observed contrail does not conform to the model, it is likely that the material of emission is not water vapor.
This paper validates the feasibility of aerosol cloud seeding operations in great detail, analyzing inputs such as air volume constraints, chemical concentration levels, particulate size, weight and size constraints of aircraft, number of aircraft employed, and the amount of time required to perform such as operation. Though not an exhaustive study, complex calculations are performed that lend credence to the argument that these aerosol programs, observed in the skies for many years, are quite possible.