Print Friendly, PDF & Email

A Global Warming Model
Clifford E Carnicom
Santa Fe, NM
Apr 13 2007

global warming model

From a Special Report on April  1, 2007 from CBS 60 Minutes, entitled, The Age of Warming:

“Over the past 50 years, this region, the Antarctica peninsula, the northwestern part and the islands around it
has been going up in temperature about one degree every decade and that makes the region the fastest warming place on earth.
…And it’s not unique. More than 90 percent of the world’s glaciers are retreating….”

A study has been done to examine the role of the aerosol operations with respect to global warming. It has long been proposed1,2,3 that the aerosol operations have the effect of aggravating the heating condition of the planet, and that they show no prospect for cooling the earth as many have claimed. This is in direct contradiction to many of the popular notions that commonly circulate regarding the operations, i.e., that these operations are somehow intended for our benefit, but it is best that their true nature remain undisclosed and closed to fair examination by the public. Whether or not such popular theories are intended to mislead the public is open to question; the facts, however, speak of an opposite end result.  The aerosols are being dispersed into the lower atmosphere, and it can be shown from this fact that they will indeed heat up the lower portion of the atmosphere.  Global warming itself is defined as the heating of the lower atmosphere and earth4. The notion that the aerosols are in some way cooling the planet is contradictory to direct observation and the examinations of physics.  To cool the planet, the intentionally dispersed aerosols would have to be in the upper regions of the atmosphere or in space; readers interested in that conclusion may wish to read more closely the proposals of Edward Teller that are often cited in the claims of supposed mitigation.   It will be found that any claims of aerosols cooling the planet will usually require those materials to be at the upper reaches of the atmosphere to the boundaries of space; aerosols in the lower atmosphere will usually be shown to be heating the planet.  These facts must be considered by any of those individuals that continue to promulgate claims of anonymous and beneficial mitigation in conjunction with the aerosol operations.

The current model examines the effects of deliberately introducing barium particulates into the lower atmosphere, and the subsequent contribution to the global warming problem.  The results are not encouraging.  The results indicate that these particulates, even at rather modest concentration levels, can contribute in a real and significant way to the heating of the lower atmosphere.  The magnitude appears to be quite on par with any of the more popularly discussed contributions, such as carbon dioxide increase and greenhouse gases.  It is recommended that the public be willing to consider some of the more direct, visible and palpable alterations to our planet and atmosphere within the pursuit of the global warming issue,  namely the aerosol operations as they have been imposed upon the public without informed consent for more than 8 years now.

The graph above shows the expected interactions from 3 variables that relate to the global warming issue; these are: aerosol concentration, time and rise in temperature.  On one axis, relatively modest concentrations of barium particulates in the atmosphere are shown.  The magnitudes shown are not at all unreasonable with respect to the numerous analyses that have been made by this researcher in the past, e.g., visibility studies available on this site. As a point of reference, the EPA air quality standard for particulates of less than 2.5 microns in size has been recently lowered5 to 35 ugms (micrograms) per m3 (cubic meter).  It will be seen from the graph, for example,  that even a 10% level of this standard (i.e., 3.5-ugms / m3) can produce a noticeable heating of the lower atmosphere.  As has been stated previously, the candor and accountability of the EPA  is sorely lacking over the past decade, and this agency has failed miserably in its duty to the public to maintain environmental safeguards.  It can no longer be assured or assumed that minimal air quality standards are being honored in any way, and the integrity of the EPA to serve the public interest can no longer be upheld.  It is quite possible, and unfortunately somewhat expected, that enforceable and accountable air quality standards have been sacrificed some time ago with the advent of the aerosol operations.

A second axis on the graph is that of time in years. A point of zero time would be one that assumes no such artificial and increased concentration of barium particulates exists in the lower atmosphere.  The graph is marked in intervals of 5 year periods, from 0 to 50 years.  The time period of 50 years has been chosen only to demonstrate that the effects of these particulates upon heating is of serious and immediate concern; within a matter of decades the effects are pronounced and have measurable global impact.  The variables of aerosol concentration and time can now be considered mutually with the above graph and model.  Presumably, humans have a vested interest in protecting the welfare of the planet beyond the immediate future of a few decades, and the problem would be only more pronounced if a century of time had been presented versus a fifty year period.

The third axis is that of temperature rise presented in degrees of centigrade.  This is the variable that should solicit the greatest concern.  To give an example of usage, a concentration of 5ugms / m3 over an interval as short as 20 years would lead to heating of the lower atmosphere on the order of  0.6 degrees centigrade.  This corresponds to approximately 1 degree of Fahrenheit.  This is found by finding the intersection of 5ugms along the concentration axis with 20 years of elapsed time on the second axis.  This point is then projected horizontally upon the temperature increase axis, where it will be found to intersect at approximately 0.6 degrees.  This is a very real and measurable result in terms of global impact.  Nobel Prize Winner Paul Crutzen, in Atmosphere, Climate and Change6 writes in 1997 that even conservative estimates of global planetary surface temperature change are on the order of  1 to 3 degrees centigrade over a 50 year interval.  This temperature change will produce sea level changes on the order of 10 to 30 centimeters. It is stated, furthermore, that “much of Earth’s population would find it inordinately difficult to adjust to such changes”.

Readers may now notice that the recent CBS special report referred to above demonstrates that the rate of  heating in Antarctica is already approximately 1.5 times greater than the predictions from the 1997 era.

It can be seen from this model that the results of artificial aerosol introduction into the lower atmosphere can be of a magnitude quite on par with the extraordinary impacts projected by even modest and conservative global warming models upon humans in the near future.   As the model presented herein is intended to be reasonably conservative, the impact of the aerosol operations could be much greater than these results show.  It is advised that the citizens consider the viability and merit of this model in the examination of the global warming issue, and that they openly take aggressive action to halt the intentional aerosol operations.

This paper is late in its offering, as my availability for continued research at this level is limited.  I am nevertheless hopeful that the information can be evaluated and assimilated into the many rationales and arguments that have developed over the last decade to cease the intentional alteration of the atmosphere of our planet.

Clifford E Carnicom
April 13, 2007

Additional Notes :  The model can easily be extended to other elements of concern, however, a focus on barium has taken place due to the unique physical properties of that element along with the evidence for its existence at unexpected levels in the atmosphere.The mathematics and physics of the model is presented in a separate paper.


1. CE Carnicom, Drought Inducement,, April 2002
2. Carnicom, Global Warming and Aerosols,, Jan 2004
3. Carnicom, Global Warming and Aerosols, Further Discussion,, Feb 2004
4. Wikipedia, Global Warming,
5. EPA,  EPA Strengthens U.S. Air Quality Standards,!opendocument
6. Crutzen, Paul, Atmosphere, Climate and Change, (Scientific American Library, 1997), p141.